The highly anticipate May USDA WASDE is now LIVE and here are the headlines…
2020/21 growing season
Global wheat ending stocks for 2020/21 were reduced from the April estimates, down marginally from 295.52MT to 294.67MT. Production estimates were virtually unchanged, but this is the first WASDE where the EU and UK are separated. EU wheat ending stocks are estimated at 9.17MT, well below the 10.73MT when combined with the UK, highlighting the tight EU stock situation.
2021/22 growing season
The headline figure for 2021/22 has got to be the Russian wheat production figure, estimated at 85MT, which we view as optimistic. This optimism for production extends across into Ukraine at 29MT and EU-27 at 134MT. However, assessment for the UK at 14.1MT is perhaps a little pessimistic.
Overall, an optimistic view for global wheat production in 2021/22, but with EU stocks remaining tight while Russian stocks continue to build.
The key takeaway from the 2020/21 season USDA WASDE is the continued conservative approach to making changes. Brazilian corn production has only been reduced to 102MT, down only 7MT from the 109MT previous estimate.
Estimates for China’s corn imports were upped to 26MT from the previous 24MT, an expected increase but possibly still a little conservative.
US corn production estimates at 380.76MT were expected, reflecting known area estimates and US end stock estimates at 38.28MT show a healthy increase in stocks.
The production optimism continues in corn, with Brazilian corn estimates of 118MT and production in Ukraine at 37.5MT.
Chinese import demand next season is being estimated at 26MT, a continuation from the current season.
Very little changes were made to the current season estimates, major exporters ending stocks were reduced slightly with Argentina the main reason due to increased crushing.
US production at 119.88MT was mostly expected, however with continued strong demand, ending stocks for next season are being forecast to remain very tight at 3.81MT.
Production optimism also spills into oilseeds, with Brazilian production estimated at 144MT and production in Argentina at 52MT.
Chinese demand is continuing the annual year on year increase in demand, seen at 103MT for next season.
|Why does the USDA report matter?|
The USDA WASDE report is monitored and traded by farmers, traders, investors and processors globally. It gives a broad overview of global S & D forecasts and many traders will place bets on the report before it’s release, this can cause volatility if data are out of kilter with expectations.