While the Argentine crush is lagging, Brazilian processors have filled a little of the void in international supplies by meeting nearly 1.6Mt oil meal exports for the first three weeks of May.

From the pointers we have so far, the Wasde looks poised to signal a downward trend for prices, as the US leads expansion in inventories among major soybean exporting countries.

May’s recovery in vegetable oil prices, so far, contrasts with continued declines in crude oil, an important influence on prices of vegetable oils, which are used largely in making biodiesel. It also runs against the trend of 2023 which has seen prices of the likes of rapeseed oil and soyoil underperform those of Brent crude.

The planted area for sunflowers is due to see a 10% increase above 5-year average and reach 4.8Mha, on account of the temporary derogation from the obligation to allocate a part of the arable land to non-productive areas and a possible switch from corn in drought affected regions.

With deeper cuts to production, Argentina will have to import a record 11Mt
of soybeans to supply its crushing sector. In recent years Argentina has
crushed about 40Mt per year and has a theoretical annual capacity greater
than 65Mt, supplying close to half of the EU’s meal import requirement.

NDVI scores for Ukraine have also added confidence for new crop harvests, with scores particularly in western areas, where the majority of rapeseed is planted, recording above-average scores.

However, while greater confidence in rapeseed production in Ukraine is now entering forecasts for supply in 2023/24, production is still set to contract year on year.

Rapeseed: Rapeseed prices have staged a recovery, after last week falling to their lowest since July 2021.Rapeseed’s price upturn tallied with revivals in many markets, as concerns receded over the bank sector tremors stemming from Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, and UBS’s takeover of Credit Suisse. Signally, crude oil futures, an important influence on prices of crops such as rapeseed used largely in making biofuels, bounced from their lowest levels since late 2021 as worries over economic fallout faded.

Soybeans: Having fallen back down to October lows earlier this month, May-23 US soybean futures have been recording a partial recovery. The bounce in crude oil is providing a floor to oilseed markets, and despite the arrival of the Brazilian soybean harvest, bearish downward pressure is reducing.

Rapeseed: While the pace of EU imports has slowed this month, they remain on course to set a record high above 6.5Mt for the full 2022-23...

Soybeans: After what has been a sustained period of support for soybean prices, which remained buoyant while grains came under pressure...

Oil & Meal: Vegetable oil values have continued to come under pressure, undermined by the broader economic pressures...

As markets trade sharply lower and following the renewal of the grain corridor, nervousness in financial markets and continued interest rate hikes, we look at what it means for grain and oilseed markets, as well as look ahead to the 2023 crop conditions.