| Signup to this report here Currency and WASDE leads to mixed trade on either side of the Atlantic. US wheat prices fell after rising in line with the broader agricultural price complex in early trading today, as the USDA released its May WASDE report, containing the first glance at the agencies outlook for global supply and demand for 2025/26. The report highlighted higher ending stocks in the US, particularly due to reduced exports. The major news today surrounded the results of US-China trade talks held in Geneva over the weekend. The two nations mutually agreed to temporarily rollback their tariff rates for a period of 90 days beginning on 14th May. This means that the US tariff rate on Chinese goods will fall from 145% to 30% and China’s tariff rate on US exports will come down from 125% to 10% for the next three months. The news supported crude oil prices and the US dollar. The euro weakened around 1.5% against the greenback, while the pound also weakened around 1%. This had helped support competitiveness of European grains, with UK feed wheat futures moving opposite to its US counterparts on the day, rising around 0.8% with Paris milling wheat prices up a similar 0.9%. Wall Street’s S&P 500 share index traded 2.9% higher, while WTI crude oil prices increased 1.9% to around US$64/bbl. US corn prices increased around 0.6%, while US soybeans were up about 0.8%. EU rapeseed futures performed the strongest on the day rising by around 2.1%. Corn The USDA’s first look at US corn production showed a record 15.8 billion bushels is anticipated for 2025/26, six percent up from 2024/25, fuelled by a big increase in area and an average yield at this stage. Global corn production is also seen hitting a fresh record high in 2025/26, with production set to reach around 1,265 million metric tonnes. However, consumption is seen outpacing production, leaving global ending stocks falling to the lowest point since 2013/14. Wheat World wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 were kept inline with the previous season at 265.73, above trade estimates ahead of the report, but still historically tight vs demand. The outlook for US wheat production in 2025/26 was for lower volumes. US output is seen falling by around 3% to 52.28 million metric tonnes, compared to 53.65 million metric tonnes in 2024/25. However, opening stocks are expected to be around 4 million tonnes higher, while domestic consumption and exports were revised slightly lower for 2025/26 relative to 2024/25, leaving ending stocks at a comfortable 25.2 million metric tonnes. Soybeans Global soybean production is seen rising to around 427 million metric tonnes in 2025/26 up from 421 million metric tonnes in 2024/25. US output is expected to be more or less stable at 118 million metric tonnes, while domestic consumption is seen rising, more than offsetting their expected drop in export demand. This means ending stocks in the US are seen falling to around eight million metric tones in 2025/26. CRM Agri will publish more analysis of the WASDE report in this weeks Global Grain Outlook report. Interested in learning more about our analysis and subscriptions? Contact us Looking for greater insights and advice on how to manage growing price volatility, get in touch Not yet subscribed? Get in touch |
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Graintab is a trading name of CRM Commodities Ltd (CRM Agri) which delivers independent agricultural commodity market research and advisory services. [www.crmagri.co.uk]
Graintab is a trading name of CRM Commodities Ltd (CRM Agri) which delivers independent agricultural commodity market research and advisory services. [www.crmagri.co.uk]
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- Global Grain Outlook – September 2025
GGO provides a longer term, opinion based outlook for grains and oilseeds markets, complementing our regular insights, S&D and price forecasts -Grain Price Forecasts (US, EU, UK) -Grain and Oilseeds Analysis -Global Balance Sheets -Prices - Agricultural Economic Outlook – September 2025
Long term supply and demand trends & funds in focus Long term supply and demand trends - Consumption forecast to outpace production for the remainder of the decade. Fund positions - Funds buy back corn, supporting prices, whilst remaining bearish on wheat.
