| Global markets have continued to fall today as forecast rainfall for the US continues to exert pressure on new-crop futures. The falls in global markets are however driven by forecasts, and there is no guarantee that what is forecast will become reality. The GFS, European and Canadian weather models all differ too in the extent and volume of rainfall forecast. Should the volume of rainfall fail to match market expectations, then expect further weather market volatility. Due to the continued dry weather in the US, crop condition scores for corn, soy, and wheat all deteriorated last week. Crop condition scores for corn fell from 72% good and excellent last week to 68%. Soybeans fell to 62% good and excellent, down 5 percentage points and winter wheat fell another percentage point to just 37% good and excellent. What does this mean? The rainfall that has now arrived and is forecast for this week will likely prevent further declines in crop condition scores for next week. Although the rains for the US are now very much needed, the dry weather has taken its toll on US grains and oilseeds, and harvest yields may well have already been impacted |
