The highly anticipated US ProFarmer tour commenced this week. With what has been such a varied season for US corn, with drought in central states and varied conditions across the US, overall yield and production estimates have been harder than ever to estimate.
Results from the US ProFarmer tour have so far added to supply concerns and wide estimates for corn production, with provisional findings for corn yields coming out well below the USDA’s provisional state estimates.
So far, provisional state by state yield estimates are varied, between 6-19% below the current USDA yield estimates with South Dakota particularly impacted by heat and drought stress.
The ProFarmer tour is moving eastward now into the main ‘corn belt’ states and yield estimates are expected to be closer to USDA estimates due to kinder weather conditions, but initial findings have also been disappointing.
The ProFarmer yield tour data will continue to be influential for markets, providing insight for potential state by state yields. However, the route taken, while planned to be representative of conditions across states is not a statistically robust sample methodology.
Historically, and there has been a strong link, and confidence behind the ProFarmer yield projections ability to forecast the direction in year on year changes in yield, but the actual accuracy of yield findings will continue to be questioned, especially given the variation in crop conditions.