The main news for the week has been the USDA US Grain Stocks and Prospective Plantings report.

Wheat

Prospective Plantings: All wheat planted area for 2021 is estimated at 46.4 million acres, up 5 percent from 2020. This represents the fourth-lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. The 2021 winter wheat planted area, at 33.1 million acres, is up 9 percent from last year and up 3 percent from the previous estimate.

The planted area for wheat is in line with expectations, if not marginally higher for winter wheat planting.

Grain Stocks: All wheat stored in all positions on March 1, 2021 totalled 1.31 billion bushels(35.8MT), down 7 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 284 million bushels(7.7MT), down 16 percent from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.03 billion bushels(28MT), are down 4 percent from a year ago.

Corn

Prospective Plantings: Corn planted area for all purposes in 2021 is estimated at 91.1 million acres, up less than 1 percent or an increase of 325,000 acres from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be up or unchanged in 24 of the 48 estimating States.

Markets were expecting a larger increase in planted area for harvest 2021, and grain markets have bounced today.

Grain Stocks: Corn stocks in all positions on March 1, 2021 totalled 7.70 billion bushels(195.6MT), down 3 percent from March 1, 2020. Of the total stocks, 4.04 billion bushels (102.5MT) were stored on farms, down 9 percent from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.66 billion bushels (93.1MT), are up 5 percent from a year ago.
Tempering some of the bullish corn news are larger than expected stocks, only down marginally year on year, although stocks in farm ownership are down further.

Oilseeds

Prospective Plantings: Soybean planted area for 2021 is estimated at 87.6 million acres, up 5 percent from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 23 of the 29 estimating States.

While the area is up, markets had been anticipating a larger increase in area, and markets have gained support today.

Grain Stocks: Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1, 2021, totalled 1.56 billion bushels (42.6MT), down 31 percent from March 1, 2020. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 594 million bushels(16.2MT), down 41 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 970 million bushels (26.4MT), are down 22 percent from last March.