Ahead of tomorrow’s USDA WASDE, and first official look to 2022/23, markets continue to recover from the start of week’s sell-off. Drought concerns for French wheat production remain a key area of concern as Dec-22 Paris milling wheat closes in on a fresh record high of €400/t.
Expect current season reductions in Brazilian corn production in tomorrow’s report. Rainfall remains scarce across second corn producing regions and forecasts are calling for extended dryness ahead. Additionally, with a renewed interest in US corn from China, old crop stock estimates will probably be trimmed.
The first supply outlook for the 2022-2023 season looks tight due to: US winter wheat in poor condition, the US spring planting campaign delayed, uncertainty surrounding Ukrainian crops rising and drought conditions in France and Europe persisting.
The USDA’s estimates for current season US soybean ending stocks should also be monitored closely tomorrow as US soybean old crop export sales continue to surge. Moreover, the USDA should provide a more accurate estimate on Brazil’s soybean crop as drought conditions continued to hamper supply estimates over the past month.