The latest USDA WASDE changes were limited and mostly reflected known data, and can be viewed as a slightly bearish report. Read the full report here.
The march changes have been for larger global supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and an overall reduced ending stocks this month.
Australian production has been increased to a record 33MT, up from the previous 30MT estimate, based on the latest ABARES estimate, passing the previous 2016/17 record of 31.8MT. World 2020/21 consumption is increased 6.6MT to 775.9MT as Chinese consumption is estimated to increase.
This month’s 2020/21 US corn supply and use outlook was left unchanged from last month. Additionally, global supply and demand estimates were left mostly unchanged. Production estimates for Brazil and Argentina were left unchanged and Chinese import estimates were maintained at 24MT. Overall a limited WASDE and April’s update will be closely watched for revised production estimates for Argentina.
As with corn, US soybean supply and use projections for 2020/21 are unchanged this month.
Soybean production estimates for Brazil are raised from 1MT to 134MT, with the USDA stating this reflects yield trends, while Argentina’s soybean production estimates are reduced 0.5MT to 47.5MT due to dry weather conditions over the past month. Chinese demand has been left unchanged, with imports maintained at 100MT.
On rapeseed, production estimates for Australia were increased to 4MT, up from the previous 3.6MT. EU+UK production estimates were also increased to 17.1MT, while imports were increased to 6.3MT, which seems at odds with the dramatic recent price rise and increased production estimates.
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