Global wheat production and ending stocks for 2021/22 were trimmed in today’s WASDE.
US wheat production has been trimmed to 47.52Mt, while Canadian wheat trimmed to 31.5Mt as spring wheat suffers from drought and heat stress.
Russian wheat production has also been trimmed from 86Mt to a more in line with market expectation view of 85Mt.
The USDA’s view for UK wheat production has been increased to 14.8Mt, up from the pessimistic 14.1Mt view in the June WASDE.
Overall, a generally bullish July WASDE for wheat, but all the factors have been known by markets for some time and cuts were expected.
Global corn production outlook was increased.
US corn production outlooks were 385.21Mt, up from the previous 390.76Mt. Yield estimates for the US were left unchanged as expected, and the increase in production estimates due to an increased area.
Chinese import estimates have been maintained at 26Mt, with production estimates maintained.
Brazilian corn production estimates for the 2020/21 season have been downwardly revised to 93Mt, from the June 102Mt estimate, an expected revision due to the poor second corn crop.
Global soybean production estimates for 2021/22 were largely unchanged, with ending stocks marginally increased.
Due to reduced export estimates for Argentina and Brazil in the 2020/21 season, stocks and overall supply in Argentina and Brazil for 2021/22 were marginally increased.
What does this mean?
The July WASDE factored into supply and demand estimates largely very well-known and fully expected cuts to US wheat, alongside Brazilian corn. With US yield estimates and Chinese import estimates having been left unchanged, the August WASDE will be more influential.
Read the full WASDE here