India has yet again dominated headlines in recent weeks as heat damage reduces production estimates. Having previously denied and rebuffed initial reports of possible export bans, India has now announced plans to limit exports, sending wheat markets higher—with Chicago wheat pushing up to daily limits. However, the ban is not a blanket ban, with governments able to import, Egypt’s GASC reportedly already having agreed to a 0.5Mt order of Indian wheat. Late last week, the USDA had estimated an 8.5Mt export campaign for next season, but moves to limit export sales and heatwaves dragging on the domestic production outlook may lead to a reduction in export estimates.
Following what has been an ongoing drought in Brazil, Conab released some positive data late last week, marginally increasing production estimates for both corn and soybeans. Soybean production estimates were increased by 1.4Mt to 123.8Mt, although still below the USDA ( May WASDE: 125Mt). For Brazil’s corn production, Conab increased production estimates by 0.6Mt to 116.2Mt (May WASDE :116Mt).
The next USDA crop progress report will be out later today. Planting progress will be closely monitored for corn, soy, and what has been a delayed start to spring wheat. Although winter wheat condition scores will remain poor, weather forecasts for the US are somewhat encouraging with some rainfall set to land across key winter wheat-producing states this week.