Grain and oilseed markets recovered slightly, after Monday’s sell off as unfavourable weather and delayed planting progress raised supply concerns. Brent crude has however, continued to fall as ongoing lockdowns in China weighed on the demand outlook.
Last night’s USDA crop progress report continued to highlight delays in the US spring planting campaign alongside the slightly improved, but still poor conditions of US winter wheat. Moreover, late Monday evening the French agriculture ministry mentioned domestic grain yield projections were likely to be revised down due to abnormally dry weather, which should have provided some support for grain markets. Furthermore, AgRural—A Brazilian agricultural consultancy—revised down their production and export estimates for Brazil’s second corn crop in a report released earlier today.
Corn planting in the US continues to be delayed, reaching 22% complete by the 8th of May, far behind the 50% planted average progress by this point in the year. With a delay to planting, emergence is also lagging relatively far behind, sitting at just 5% emerged, relative to 15% average pace of emergence for this time of year. In South America, AgRural cut its estimate for second corn crop production by 5Mt to 80.9Mt, while also reducing export estimates to between 38-40Mt, from 43Mt previously.
Like with corn, the soybean planting progress in the US has been delayed, reaching just 12% by Sunday, well below the 24% long term average progress by this point in the year.
The condition of US winter wheat remains in an overall poor condition. Although overall, the condition of US winter wheat rated good and excellent improved by 2 percentage point to 29%, this is still well below the 49% good and excellent of last season. Spring wheat planting in the US is also delayed, reaching 27% by the 8th of May, down 20 percentage points from an average 47%—highlighting that just 2% is planted in Minnesota thus far notably below its 5-year average progress of 50%.