Initially, off to a strong start, the wheat market rally of late last week failed to translate into a continued push higher by this afternoon. Corn in the US also started off strong, opening higher before coming under slight pressure.
Behind the rally in grain markets have been soaring temperatures in the EU and central US states, putting corn at risk. This week’s USDA crop progress report will be out later today.
Tomorrow the USDA will release the July WASDE. Key to watch will be changes to US production estimates, anticipated Brazilian corn demand and potential cuts to wheat output in Argentina. Ukraine remains a large unknown, having recently cancelled it’s licensing of wheat exports late last week to simplify sales of new crop grains.
Ahead of tomorrow’s WASDE, and speculative Managed Money positions in corn, wheat and soybeans continued to pullback their bullish long positions.
The trend for a reduced bullish position in US corn last week continued as Managed Money trimmed the number of long positions held in corn to the lowest number held since October 2020. The number of short positions, while having increased last week still remain at relatively minor levels.
Managed Money positions in wheat continued to trim the number of long positions held last week dropping to the lowest held since February, increasing what has become a marginal net short position. That said, the number of short positions were also trimmed.
In soybeans, and like with corn, speculative investors continue to hold a net long position, but the extent of this position has again been trimmed. The number of long positions held is now at the lowest since the middle of January.