Highlights of this week by James Bolesworth (Managing Director)
Grain and oilseed markets globally remain extremely tight, with stock levels relative to use having fallen to the lowest levels in 10 years, fuelled further by considerable uncertainty about the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, both major exporters of grains and oilseeds. We will be looking at this in greater depth in our upcoming analysis and reports.
Furthermore, inflationary pressures are not only a cause for concern at the moment, but are adding fuel to already tight grain markets as investors seek to hedge this risk through commodity markets and other asset classes.
Global grain and oilseed markets this week remain overshadowed by the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the ongoing dryness in Argentina. A recovery in global stocks is going to take time, anything which jeopardises this will only slow the recovery.
Higher fertiliser prices are widely discussed and this week, in our monthly forecasts, we looked at the potential impact on global supplies from higher fertiliser prices.
China remains a sleeping giant when it comes to corn purchasing and as we stated last week; ”The USDA in their February WASDE continued to forecast a 26Mt import demand this season, which if realised is bullish on lower US stocks. However, the regional FAS office now view full season corn imports at just 20Mt, with wide differences in demand estimates even across USDA departments.”
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