Increasing focus on planting and projections for next year’s harvest
Although the current season is only just getting underway, there will now be an increased focus on planting and projections for next year’s harvest and South American corn production.
Russia continues to be the key for global wheat markets, and winter planting for next year has generally been progressing well.
But it is now starting to show signs of falling behind the 2020 season.
Following the political intervention in export markets, the Russian government risks disincentivising farmers from expanding the winter wheat area.
With the world heavily reliant upon Russian wheat, the potential fall in area will be key for new crop markets.
While wheat markets are facing support from harvest 2022 uncertainty, corn markets are at a crossroad.
Chinese demand will be key for US corn, with a direct impact on US stocks.
Although the USDA still estimates a 26mt Chinese demand, it has been absent from making new crop US corn sales since May and remain one of the largest unknowns for this season.
In South America, La Nina is again going to be influential.
Argentina will be the focus, with the corn crop currently being planted amid below average rainfall and yields in Argentina potentially negatively impacted by La Nina events.